Democratic Palestine : 39 (ص 15)
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- Democratic Palestine : 39 (ص 15)
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-
ing Israeli policy thinking. The most
distinct elements in the new regional
situation are: united Arab concern a-
bout the consequences of Soviet Jew-
ish immigration; the democratization
in Jordan, which opens new channels
for support to the intifada; and the
stated intention of Saddam Hussein to
fight fire with fire in the case Iraq
would be attacked by Israel. This is
not exactly an unreasonable expecta-
tion on the Iraqi president’s part in
view of the 1981 Israeli air strike on
the Iraqi nuclear plant (whereby, inci-
dently, Begin ensured his 1981 reelec-
tion). Israel has often sought to over-
come its own crises by launching a
spectacular first strike or even a major
war (1967).
Only recently, Israeli chief-of-staff
Shomron said that quick strikes re-
main among Israel’s options. Speaking
at a reunion of soldiers who parti-
cipated in the 1976 raid on Entebbe
airport, which he led, Shomron said:
«...the IDF can do it again even today
...maybe even better,» citing improved
equipment (Associated Press, May
10th). After a Palestinian naval attack
on Israel a few weeks later, Israeli
leaders spoke of hitting Libya that was
accused of supporting the attack logis-
tically.
Saddam Hussein’s vow to inflict
major damage on Israel if attacked
spurred an expected Zionist media
campaign trying to resurrect the image
of «poor little» Israel beleaguered by
the Arabs - the very image that Israel
itself smashed by sustained brutality
against the unarmed masses of the
intifada. But although Israeli officials
and strategists took the Iraqi «threat»
seriously, few seemed to think Iraq
would really attack. According to
Deputy Chief of General Staff Ehud
Barak, Saddam Hussein «will think
twice and more before using chemical
weapons against Israel’s home front.
He has good reasons to do so, and he
knows these reasons better than most
Israeli citizens» (Jerusalem Post Inter-
national, April 21st).
Writing in Jerusalem Post Interna-
tional, April 14th, Harry J. Lipkin
wrote that the Iraqi president’s «saber-
rattling» could even be a prelude to
«peace,» noting that Egypt, as the
strongest Arab state, had been the first
to make peace with Israel. It is
noteworthy that Lipkin is a member of
the Department of Nuclear Physics at
the Weizmann Institute - the cradle of
Israel’s nuclear bomb. In the last
analysis, this is why Israeli leaders can
take the new Iraqi militancy with rela-
tive calm, for it is Israel that has the
undisputed edge in the balance of ter-
ror in the Middle East.
Israeli experts have set about
thinking how to turn the new Iraqi
militancy to their own advantage. They
are reshuffling the cards in the Israeli
«security» doctrine in a new effort to
divert from the Palestinian intifada and
the PLO’s peace initiative, using
Strategic arguments to augment
Shamir’s simple obstinancy. Typical of
this trend is Dore Gold, director of the
US Foreign and Defense Policy Project
at Tel Aviv University’s Jaffee Center
for Strategic Studies. Writing in
Jerusalem Post International, April
14th, he chides the US for having
focused on the Cairo dialogue (with
the Palestinians) rather than on the
part of the Shamir plan that addresses
the Arab states. Gold’s argument goes
as follows: «Should Iraq eventually
replace Syria as the primary threat to
Israel, such a development could have
an enormous impact on the peace pro-
cess. The greater readiness of many in
Israel to make territorial concessions in
Judea and Samaria (sic) but not on the
Golan Heights has been partly a func-
tion of the perception of a more
immediate threat in the north and a
more remote threat to the east. Jor-
dan’s increasing security dependence
on Iraq, combined with the latter’s
recent declaration of intentions, will
require a revision of the calculations of
the risks Israel faces on its eastern
front. Certainly Israel’s early warning
stations looking eastward from the hill-
tops of Judea and Samaria, as well as
its air defense deployments there, will
become more critical. Defensive posi-
tions against Iraqi ground forces that
could cross Jordan in 48 hours will
become more salient. Israel’s strategic
flexibility in negotiations over the ter-
ritories could be altered.»
The Jerusalem Post editoralized in
a similar vein on «The lessons of
Iraq,» saying that: «The priorities of
the peace process must be re-exa-
mined... without such progress (in
curbing the Middle East arms race and
moving towards accomodation bet-
ween Israel, Iraq and Syria), conces-
sions to the Palestinians would be at
best futile.»
On Israeli television, then Foreign
Minister Arens said, «I think that
something is perhaps understood to-
day that was not understood before
Saddam Hussein spoke, that the Pal-
estinian part of the Arab-Israeli con-
flict is only one of the parts and not
the most important one...» Brigadier
General Nachman Shai, army spokes-
man, echoed the same thought, saying:
«,..the argument is not now on the
West Bank... You cannot settle the
Nablus riots (sic) and be happy...»
(Associated Press, May 3rd).
A parallel thrust is using the
«Iraqi danger» as rationale for con-
tinued US military and economic aid
when, for the first time in history, seri-
ous questions have been put concern-
ing the amount of this aid by influen-
tial congressional _ representatives.
Israeli military personnel have spoken
of the need for buying US Patriot mis-
siles, which were previously considered
too expensive, until the Arrow missile
system is completed. This merges with
the discussion among Israeli strategists
about how to fit their interests into the
post-Cold War situation. Ostensibly,
the new US-Soviet relations removed
part of the rationale for massive aid to
the Zionist state. On the other hand,
the Bush Administration’s list of possi-
ble forthcoming foreign arms sales
totals $30 billion - almost half of which
could go to the Middle East. Many of
the US tanks now in western Europe
are being sold to Egypt. Israeli experts
are concerned about the possibility of
increased arms sales to Arab countries,
and will surely seek yet more aid to
maintain their strategic edge in the
new situation.
Back into the future
Renewed settlement drive
With the opportunities presented
by massive Soviet Jewish immigration,
Shamir’s caretaker government had
already been attempting a return to
the settlement drive of the late 70s-
early 80s, aiming to ensure the Zionist
>
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